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内容提要

上一期，我们阅读了博士论文《考虑消费者预期后悔的产品定价研究》的第三章：考虑消费者预期后悔的两阶段降价管理。这一期我们及那个对第四章进行阅读：考虑消费者预期后悔的产品换代策略及其定价研究。

In the last issue, we read the third chapter of the doctoral dissertation "Research on product pricing considering consumers' expected regret": two-stage price reduction management considering consumers' expected regret. In this issue, we will read the fourth chapter: Research on product replacement strategies and pricing considering consumers' expected regret.

问题提出

作者由企业创新产品换代案例引入产品换代，并提出消费者在这过程可能出现的结果。消费者在过去很多时候都体验过购后后悔，所以他们变得更加意识到未来的潜在后悔，会在决策之前预期所有可能出现的后悔。基于这些问题，作者就想要通过本章的研究去回答（1）预期后悔是否以及如何影响策略型消费者决策行为？（2）消费者的预期后悔如何影响提供多种产品变体的企业动态定价与换代策略？（3）持续创新企业是否可以通过在营销方案中调用后悔或减轻后悔来实现更高的企业利润？

The author introduces product replacement from the case of enterprise innovation product replacement, and puts forward the possible results of consumers in this process. Consumers have experienced post purchase regret many times in the past, so they become more aware of the potential regret in the future and will anticipate all possible regrets before making decisions. Based on these questions, the author wants to answer (1) whether and how expected regret affects strategic consumers' decision-making behavior through the research in this chapter? (2) How does consumers' expected regret affect the dynamic pricing and generation strategy of enterprises that provide multiple product variants? (3) Can a sustainable innovation enterprise achieve higher corporate profits by invoking regret or alleviating regret in its marketing plan?

消费者决策模型

作者首先求取消费者出不同状态下的可能的购买行为和对应的消费者效用表示为矩阵。每一种特定的备择选项ijA 表示在第 1 期购买iF 并且在第 2 期购买jF 的消费者集合。

The author first obtains the possible purchasing behavior of consumers in different states and the corresponding consumer utility as a matrix. Each specific alternative IJA represents a set of consumers who purchased if in phase 1 and JF in phase 2.

随后，作者引入预期后悔表达式和后悔修正的期望效用函数，指出后悔厌恶系数不同的大小关系可以将消费者划分成两种类型的后悔。

Then, the author introduces the expected regret expression and the expected utility function of regret correction, and points out that consumers can be divided into two types of regret according to the different magnitude of regret aversion coefficient.

紧接着，作者按照支付意愿的区间范围，初步分析消费者在不同支付区间范围下的消费决策行为。在前面两个较低的区间下，消费者会直接推出，或者全部选择购买折扣产品，不存在后悔。当消费者处于高支付意愿区间时，则需要对效用较大的两个备择选项进行大小比较，求出支付意愿，在与区间断点值进行比较。这样可以判断出消费者不同的预期后悔程度。在基于这种划分，可以划分为三个区域，不同的区域下消费者在阶段的可能选择行为不同。

Then, according to the range of willingness to pay, the author preliminarily analyzes the consumption decision-making behavior of consumers in different payment ranges. In the first two lower ranges, consumers will directly launch or choose to buy discounted products, without regret. When the consumer is in the interval of high willingness to pay, it is necessary to compare the two options with greater utility to determine the willingness to pay and compare them with the interval breakpoint value. In this way, we can judge the different degree of expected regret of consumers. Based on this division, it can be divided into three regions, and the possible choice behaviors of consumers at different stages are different in different regions.

企业决策分析

关于企业决策分析，作者则是分析零售商主导者，与消费者之间的斯坦伯格博弈。构建对一二阶段子最大利润模型，采用逆向归纳算法，得到价格均衡解，以及利润均衡解。作者根据前面划分的三个消费者行为决策区域，依次进行求解分析。

As for the analysis of enterprise decision, the author analyzes the Steinberg game between retailers and consumers. The maximum profit model for a second-order segment is constructed, and the price equilibrium solution and profit equilibrium solution are obtained by using the inverse induction algorithm. According to the three decision-making areas of consumer behavior, the author analyzes them in turn.

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参考资料：谷歌翻译;

参考文献：[1]：张晋菁. 考虑消费者预期后悔的产品定价研究[D].山西大学,2018.

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