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「国际教育」Alevel/AP经济学A*学习笔记:宏观经济目标的重要性

Alevel课堂 119

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A-level economics revision guides and question banks covering labour markets, supply and demand, market structure and all core economics a-level topics.

以下内容我们会持续更新:

今天带给大家Alevel经济笔记是:

第8章:宏观经济目标——宏观经济目标的重要性

Why are these objectives important?为什么这些目标很重要?

1. Full employment, or low unemployment 充分就业,或低失业率

Although this objective was not considered so important in the 80s, when unemployment rose to over 3 million, it is still considered important by most economists, and the current Labour government have certainly made the goal of full employment more prominent.

虽然这个目标在 80 年代被认为不那么重要,但当失业率上升到超过 300 万时,仍然被大多数经济学家认为是重要的,而现任工党政府当然将充分就业的目标更加突出。

It is important to keep unemployment levels as low as possible.

High unemployment is expensive for the government and, therefore, for the taxpayer.

For every unemployed person, there are two costs to the government.

First, the unemployed worker will be entitled to benefit, and if he/she is young, or older but remains unemployed for a long period of time, he/she will be offered training under the 'New Deal'.

Secondly, there is the less obvious cost of the loss of income tax revenues the worker would have paid in work.

These workers would have been paying VAT as well through their purchases.

Put together, some economists have estimated that the cost to taxpayers of each unemployed person is up to £9,000 a year.

将失业率保持在尽可能低的水平非常重要。高失业率对政府来说是昂贵的,因此对纳税人来说也是如此。对于每个失业者,政府要承担两项费用。首先,失业工人将有权获得福利,如果他/她年轻或年长但长期失业,他/她将在“新政”下接受培训。其次,工人本应在工作中支付的所得税收入损失的成本不太明显。这些工人也将通过购买支付增值税。总而言之,一些经济学家估计,每个失业者的纳税人每年的成本高达 9,000 英镑。

There are other costs of unemployment.

There is the cost to the whole economy in terms of wasted, unused resources.

The existence of any idle resources means that the economy will be at a point within its production possibility frontier (PPF).

还有其他失业成本。就浪费和未使用的资源而言,整个经济都会付出代价。任何闲置资源的存在意味着经济将处于其生产可能性边界(PPF)内的某个点。

Unemployed workers (young men, in particular) may create other external costs in the economy, like crime for example.

The governments of the 80s always dismissed the coincidence of rising crime figures and rising unemployment.

Was it really a coincidence, given that many of the new unemployed were young school leavers with no experience in work?

失业工人(尤其是年轻人)可能会在经济中产生其他外部成本,例如犯罪。80 年代的政府总是否认犯罪数字上升和失业率上升的巧合。鉴于许多新失业者是没有工作经验的年轻毕业生,这真的是巧合吗?

Finally, there is the personal human cost to each worker.

In the short term the unemployed worker has to put up with the loss of earnings, although this may be balanced by redundancy payments.

But in the long run, the long term unemployed will find it harder and harder to find a job, as they find that the skills they have become less relevant and they have had no new training.

最后,每个工人都有个人的人力成本。在短期内,失业工人不得不忍受收入损失,尽管这可以通过裁员补偿来平衡。但从长远来看,长期失业的人会越来越难找到工作,因为他们发现自己的技能变得不那么重要,而且他们没有接受新的培训。

2. Price stability价格稳定

Some would say that the main reason why the control of inflation is so important is that if inflation gets out of control, the economy stops growing.

If inflation rises, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is forced to raise interest rates. Consumers will stop borrowing to spend and firms will stop borrowing to invest.

The housing market will slump, and along with it all the home improvement consumption that goes with it.

Manufacturers exports will become less competitive. The economy may well drop into a recession.

有人会说,控制通胀如此重要的主要原因是,如果通胀失控,经济就会停止增长。如果通胀上升,货币政策委员会(MPC)将被迫提高利率。消费者将停止借贷进行消费,企业将停止借贷进行投资。房地产市场将下滑,随之而来的是所有的家居装修消费。制造商的出口将变得不那么有竞争力。经济很可能陷入衰退

Many economists worry about the redistributional effects of inflation.

Periods of high inflation cause redistribution from savers to borrowers.

Inflation erodes the real value of all money.

Hence, if you are a net saver, the real value of your savings will fall, which is bad for the saver, but if you are a net debtor, the real value of what you owe will fall, which is good for the borrower.

许多经济学家担心通货膨胀的再分配效应。高通胀时期会导致从储户向借款人的再分配。通货膨胀侵蚀了所有货币的真实价值。因此,如果你是净储蓄者,你的储蓄的实际价值会下降,这对储蓄者不利,但如果你是净债务人,你所欠的实际价值会下降,这对借款人有利。

The interest rate that is earned on one's saving will usually be higher than the inflation rate, but there have been times when the rate of interest does not keep up with the inflation rate, and so savers are paid a negative real interest rate.

The best example of debtors gaining from inflation is the housing market.

储蓄所赚取的利率通常会高于通货膨胀率,但有时利率跟不上通货膨胀率,因此向储户支付的实际利率为负。债务人从通货膨胀中获益的最好例子是房地产市场。

Most of your parents will have 'made' money on their house.

Of course, they do not 'realise' (i.e. get their hands on) this gain in wealth whilst they live in the property, but their mortgage remains relatively constant (especially if they are on a fixed rate mortgage) as their earnings rise over the years.

Also, they can borrow against the increased value of the property to buy a car, go on holiday or extend the house.

你的大多数父母都会在他们的房子上“赚到”钱。当然,当他们居住在该物业时,他们并没有“意识到”(即获得)这种财富收益,但他们的抵押贷款保持相对稳定(特别是如果他们采用固定利率抵押贷款),因为他们的收入增长超过年。此外,他们可以借房产增值来购买汽车、度假或扩建房屋。

Economists do not like this redistribution from savers to borrowers.

It penalises thrift, which is a bad thing for the economy because, over the long term, the amount of investment in an economy is closely related to the amount of saving.

经济学家不喜欢这种从储户到借款人的再分配。它惩罚节俭,这对经济来说是一件坏事,因为从长远来看,一个经济体的投资量与储蓄量密切相关。

There are two minor costs of inflation. 'Shoe leather' costs refer to the time wasted (and worn shoe leather!) searching the market place for the lowest price.

This is much harder when inflation is high.

High inflation tends to coincide with variable inflation and, therefore, very unstable prices.

通货膨胀有两个小成本。“鞋革”成本是指在市场上寻找最低价格所浪费的时间(和磨损的鞋革!)。当通货膨胀率高时,这要困难得多。高通胀往往与可变通胀同时发生,因此价格非常不稳定。

'Menu costs' refer to the costs of inflation to businesses in terms of continually having to change their menus, price tags, vending machines, etc. due to the continually changing price.

菜单成本”是指由于不断变化的价格而导致企业不得不不断改变菜单、价格标签、自动售货机等的通货膨胀成本。

3. High (but sustainable) economic growth高(但可持续)经济增长

Some would say this is the most important of all the objectives.

Why? Since economic growth leads to improved living standards.

Obviously this is good for the inhabitants of an economy.

有人会说这是所有目标中最重要的。为什么?因为经济增长会带来生活水平的提高。显然,这对经济中的居民是有利的。

Unfortunately, there always seems to be a trade-off between efficiency and equity in an economy.

The most efficient economies in the world have grown the most and their inhabitants have experienced the best standards of living.

But these economies tend to have the most unequal distributions of income.

The competitive world of the free market creates winners and losers.

The winners are exceptionally rich, but the losers can be worse off in absolute terms as well as relative terms unless the government's welfare state is generous.

不幸的是,一个经济体似乎总是在效率和公平之间进行权衡。世界上最高效的经济体增长最快,其居民经历了最好的生活水平。但这些经济体的收入分配往往最为不平等。自由市场的竞争世界创造了赢家和输家。赢家非常富有,但除非政府的福利国家慷慨,否则输家的绝对和相对情况都可能更糟。

To be fair, though, successful economies tend to grow so much that the standard of living of the poorest households in the economy still tends to rise.

This was known as the 'trickle down' effect.

不过,公平地说,成功的经济体往往增长如此之快,以至于经济体中最贫困家庭的生活水平仍然趋于上升。这被称为“涓滴”效应

As the national cake gets bigger, the poor may well be getting a smaller slice (worsening distribution of income), but that slice will still constitute more cake as time goes by.

随着国家蛋糕变大,穷人很可能会得到更小的部分(收入分配恶化),但随着时间的推移,这部分仍然会构成更多的蛋糕。

4. Balance of payments in equilibrium国际收支平衡

For developed economies with mature and free capital markets, balance of payments disequilibria are not so important nowadays.

If a developed country has, for example, a current account deficit, it can usually attract enough foreign investment on the capital account to balance their books. In other words, they can finance the deficit.

对于拥有成熟和自由资本市场的发达经济体而言,国际收支失衡如今已不再那么重要。例如,如果一个发达国家经常账户出现逆差,它通常可以在资本账户上吸引足够的外国投资来平衡他们的账目。换句话说,他们可以为赤字融资。

Some economists argue that it is a bad thing, but more in the sense that it is a sign of the uncompetitive-ness of the economy's industries.

Economies with continual current account deficits are not 'paying their way' in the world.

一些经济学家认为这是一件坏事,但更多地是从某种意义上说,这是经济行业缺乏竞争力的标志。经常账户持续出现逆差的经济体并没有在世界上“付出代价”。

The problem lies with developing countries that experience large current account deficits over a long period of time.

They may simply not be able to finance this deficit. They need to pay for the imports in the currency of the country from whom the goods are bought.

The US dollar is usually accepted worldwide. If they can't earn enough US dollars to pay for their imports, can't attract the foreign investment and can't convince other countries to lend them money, then they will be in trouble.

Countries in this much trouble can knock on the door of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) looking for funds.

These will only be lent under quite severe economic conditions, like keeping government spending down to a prohibitively low level.

问题在于长期存在巨额经常账户赤字的发展中国家。他们可能根本无法为这一赤字提供资金。他们需要以商品购买国的货币支付进口费用。美元通常在全球范围内被接受。如果他们不能赚到足够的美元来支付进口费用,不能吸引外国投资,不能说服其他国家借钱给他们,那么他们就会陷入困境。陷入困境的国家可以敲开国际货币基金组织(IMF)的大门寻找资金。这些只有在相当严峻的经济条件下才会放贷,比如将政府支出控制在一个令人望而却步的低水平。

Current account surpluses might not seem so bad (I'd prefer my bank account to be in surplus rather than deficit!), but they do mean that the economy is sacrificing consumption at home for exports abroad.

Also, they can be bad for the simple reason that one country's surplus is another country's deficit. It is probably best not to ruin a country to which you export.

Also, one doesn't want to sour trade relations, otherwise you might provoke a trade war (The USA and Japan have a lot of history here - see the previous Learn It).

The USA and the EU are currently arguing over the labelling of products that contain genetically modified (GM) materials.

经常账户盈余可能看起来并没有那么糟糕(我宁愿我的银行账户盈余而不是赤字!),但它们确实意味着经济正在牺牲国内消费以换取国外出口。此外,它们可能不好,原因很简单,一个国家的盈余就是另一个国家的赤字。最好不要破坏您出口的国家。另外,不要破坏贸易关系,否则可能会引发贸易战(美国和日本在这里有很多历史 - 参见前面的 Learn It)。美国和欧盟目前正在就含有转基因 (GM) 材料的产品标签进行争论。

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