2020年5月22日《纽约时报》撰文：特朗普2020竞选战略：攻击他人、洗白自己和重复谎言（原创汉语翻译）。

----苏珊·米利根（资深政治作家）

Trump's 2020 Strategy: Attack, Rinse and Repeat

----By Susan Milligan, Senior Politics Writer May 22, 2020, at 6:00 a.m.

HE'S ACCUSING HIS election opponent of criminal behavior. He's blaming the nation's woes on foreigners. He attaches schoolyard nicknames to politicians he doesn't like, hoping to brand them out of business. Anyone who crosses him is ostentatiously fired.他指控他的竞选对手有犯罪行为。他把国家的苦难归咎于外国人。他给自己不喜欢的政客起校园绰号，希望以此来让他们歇菜。任何“僭越”他的人都会被明目张胆地解雇。

For Donald Trump, the 2020 presidential campaign strategy is 2016 all over again – demonizing his critics as deranged anti-Trumpers and casting himself and his most ardent supporters as victims of a Washington, D.C., "swamp" out to protect itself at the expense of regular Americans.

对唐纳德·特朗普来说，2020年的总统竞选战略又是2016年的翻版——他把批评者妖魔化为疯狂的反特朗普者，把自己和他最热心的支持者塑造成华盛顿特区的受害者，牺牲普通美国人的利益，为保护自己而“应接不暇” 。

The problem for Trump is that he has been the highest ranking resident of the purported swamp for 3 1/2 years, making it harder for him to run as the outsider best equipped to shake up a corrupt system. But unlike his predecessors, Trump has retained an insurgent image among his base, who continue to see the president as the defiant force against everything from the so-called "deep state" to the "fake news."

特朗普面临的问题是，他在这片据称是“沼泽地”的最高级别之所居住了3年半，这使得他更难成为最有能力撼动腐败体系的局外人。但与前任不同的是，特朗普在自己的基地中保留了反叛者的形象，他们继续将总统视为对抗从所谓“反对特朗普的州”到“假新闻”等一切的反抗力量。

"Ordinarily it's hard to run for reelection as the outsider. Jimmy Carter learned this in 1980. He was the anti-Washington person who was in power," says Julian Zelizer, a history and public affairs professor at Princeton University. "Trump is so out of the box and so unconventional that he remains an outsider in certain ways. He also has a massive media and social media platform that will sell that message even if he is the person sitting in the Oval Office."

“一般来说，作为局外人竞选连任很难。这是吉米·卡特是1980年的语录。普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）历史与公共事务教授朱利安•泽利泽（Julian Zelizer）说：“他是一个反华盛顿的掌权者。”特朗普如此出格，如此非常规，以至于他在某些方面仍然是政坛局外人。他还拥有一个庞大的媒体和社交媒体平台，即使他是坐在椭圆形办公室的人，也会兜售这一信息。”

As the presidential campaign nears, Trump has reverted to his old playbook and verbiage.

随着总统竞选的临近，特朗普又翻开了他的旧剧本和陈词滥调。

Immigrants and foreigners? They were responsible, in Trump's 2016 mind, for crime and the decline of manufacturing jobs. This year, it's China that Trump has blamed for the coronavirus, along with world health community officials who didn't stop it.

如何对待移民和外国人？在特朗普2016年的心目中，移民和外国人对犯罪和制造业就业岗位减少负有责任。今年，特朗普将冠状病毒归咎于中国，世界卫生组织官员也无法阻止他的行为。

Former President Barack Obama – who has been out of office nearly four years and is not running for office again – continues to be a target of Trump, who blames the former president for everything from the national debt (which has escalated under the Trump administration) to the lack of planning for a global pandemic (Obama left the incoming administration, literally, a guide for dealing with a potential pandemic). Those attacks have continued despite Obama's post-term popularity: A recent Public Policy Polling survey found that 54% of Americans would vote for Obama against Trump, who would get 43% of the vote.

美国前总统奥巴马（Barack Obama）已经离任近四年，不再竞选总统，但他继续成为特朗普的攻击目标，特朗普将从国债（在特朗普政府的领导下已经升级）到缺乏应对全球流行病的计划（奥巴马让即将上任的政府成为应对潜在流行病的指南）等所有问题都归咎于前总统奥巴马。尽管奥巴马在任期后颇受欢迎，但这些攻击仍在继续：最近的一项公共政策民调调查发现，54%的美国人会投奥巴马反对特朗普，特朗普可能获得43%的选票。

Instead of seeking to build a broader voter coalition, the president has continued an anti-immigrant tirade meant to appeal to his hard-core base – disaffected white men. Trump has even reverted to using his favorite lines from 2016: "What have you got to lose?" Trump said Monday, explaining why he was taking the unproved coronavirus treatment hydroxychloroquine. It was the same line he used in 2016 when asked to explain why African Americans should vote for him.

特朗普没有寻求建立一个更广泛的选民联盟，而是继续进行一场反移民的冗长说辞，意在吸引他的核心基础——那些不满的白人。特朗普甚至从2016年开始恢复使用他最喜欢的台词：“你有什么损失？”特朗普周一解释了他为什么服用未经证实的冠状病毒治疗羟氯喹。这是他在2016年被问及为什么非裔美国人应该投他的票时使用的同一句台词。

And while most reelection campaigns are referendums on the incumbent, Trump is trying to make the campaign a ruling on the integrity and health of his opponent. Just as Trump questioned Hillary Clinton's health and fitness, he has suggested former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democrtic nominee, is losing mental acuity.

虽然多数连任竞选都是针对现任总统的全民公决，特朗普却试图让竞选成为对对手正直和健康的裁决。就在特朗普质疑希拉里·克林顿的健康状况之际，他暗示，前副总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）这个被认为是民主派候选人的人正在失去精神敏锐性。

As Trump accused Clinton of criminal activity, citing her home email server as proof, so he has gone after Biden. Trump has sought to tie the former vice president to political scandal – to everything from the prosecution of Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn (which Trump says was wrongly done) to a discredited claim that Biden tried to force the removal of a Ukranian prosecutor to protect his son Hunter Biden.

由于特朗普指控希拉里·克林顿有犯罪活动，并以她的家庭电子邮件服务器为证据，所以他一直在追查拜登。特朗普一直试图将这位前副总统与政治丑闻联系在一起——从起诉特朗普国家安全顾问迈克尔·弗林（特朗普说这是错误的做法）到不可信的说法，即拜登试图迫使一名乌克兰检察官下台，以保护他的儿子亨特·拜登。

In the latter effort, Trump – as he did in 2016 – has cooperation from congressional Republicans. House Republicans conducted a two-year investigation of the death of four American diplomats in Benghazi, Libya, ultimately finding in its 2016 report no new evidence of wrongdoing by Clinton, who was secretary of state at the time of the killings. Weeks before Clinton was nominated for president at the Democratic National Convention, House Republicans asked the Justice Department to look into whether she had committed perjury when testifying about her email server.

在后一项努力中，特朗普——正如他在2016年所做的那样——得到了国会共和党人的合作。众议院共和党人对4名美国外交官在利比亚班加西的死亡事件进行了为期两年的调查，最终在2016年的报告中发现，没有新的证据显示希拉里·克林顿在担任国务卿时实施了谋杀。在克林顿在民主党全国代表大会上被提名为总统候选人的几周前，众议院共和党人要求司法部调查她在作证有关她的电子邮件服务器时是否犯了伪证罪。

Trump recently has been urging Senate Republicans to look into Obama and Biden, with some success: Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republcian, is preparing hearings on the conduct of the Russia investigation but has said he will not call Obama to testify. Other GOP-run committees are looking into Obama-era matters, including Hunter Biden's work for the Ukrainian firm Burisma. The Senate Homeland Security Committee this week voted along party lines to subpoena testimony and documents from a firm that did business with the Ukrainian company when Hunter Biden was on the board.

特朗普最近一直敦促参议院共和党人调查奥巴马和拜登，他取得了一些成功：参议院司法委员会主席、南卡罗来纳州共和党人林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）正准备就俄罗斯调查的进行举行听证会，但他表示不会打电话给奥巴马作证。其他共和党执掌的委员会正在调查奥巴马时代的事务，包括亨特·拜登为乌克兰Burisma公司所做的工作。本周，参议院国土安全委员会（Senate Homeland Security Committee）按照政党的路线投票，传唤亨特•拜登（Hunter Biden）在董事会任职时与这家乌克兰公司有业务往来的一家公司的证词和文件。

That approach worked, of course, in 2016. But now that Trump has a record of his own to defend, the tactic is not so easy, says Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic consultant and director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California.

当然，这种方法在2016年奏效了。但长期担任民主党顾问、南加州大学政治未来中心主任的鲍勃·斯鲁姆（Bob Shrum）表示，既然特朗普有自己的辩护记录，这种策略就不那么容易了。

"No president has ever been reelected in the wake of an economic disaster, like the one we're experiencing. You put that on top of the health disaster, which – if you believe the polls – a majority of Americans believe he should have handled much better. And he has a historical political Mount Everest to climb," Shrum says.

“没有一位总统能像我们现在经历的那样，在经济灾难之后再次当选。你把总统竞选放在了公共卫生灾难的首位，如果你相信民意调查的话，大多数美国人认为他应该在疫情防控方面处理得更好。他还有一座史无前例的政治珠穆朗玛峰要攀登。

Trump's campaign is "throwing everything they can against (Biden) and hoping it will stick," as Trump did with Clitnon in 2016, Shrum says. Still, Biden's lead nationally is about 8-10 percentage points, Shrum adds. The last candidate to win by nearly 10% of the popular vote, Shrum notes, was a Republican: Ronald Reagan, who ended up taking 489 Electoral College votes to Jimmy Carter's 49.

斯鲁姆说，特朗普的竞选团队正在“倾尽全力反对（拜登）并希望团队能坚持下去”，就像特朗普在2016年对希拉里·克林顿所做的那样。不过，舒拉姆补充说，拜登在全国的领先优势约为8-10个百分点。斯鲁姆指出，最后一个赢得近10%选票的候选人是共和党人：罗纳德·里根，他最终以489张选举团的选票击败了吉米·卡特的49张。